SOMEONE up there is looking more 
				kindly on Shell, the Anglo-Dutch multinational that reported its 
				third-quarter numbers yesterday. After all its troubles in 
				recent years, it has had something of a let-off from the passage 
				of hurricanes Katrina and Rita. 
				Even with the battering to Mars, its biggest Gulf oil 
				platform, which will not be up and running until late next year, 
				Shell put the cost of the damage at $350 million (£196 million). 
				That is about half the amount that BP factored in for its 
				hurricane damage. 
				
				Meanwhile, the operating results were well ahead of City 
				forecasts, suggesting that Shell is squeezing what it can out of 
				a very favourable environment. The big question is what would 
				Shell look like if fortune was less kind to the company. Oil and 
				gas output is unlikely to grow much in the short term from this 
				year’s estimate of 3.5 million barrels per day. This reflects 
				Shell’s challenge in increasing its production and bringing the 
				13 billion barrels of theoretical reserves in its portfolio into 
				real saleable barrels. 
				To do that, Shell needs to spend heavily and investment 
				this year has been confirmed at $15 billion, but the revisions 
				reflect higher costs more than extra opportunities, which is a 
				little disappointing. The investment programme for next year, 
				still to be confirmed, is likely to be higher with some analysts 
				predicting an $18 billion capital expenditure budget, reflecting 
				the large cost overrun at the Sakhalin liquefied natural gas 
				project. 
				Shell has the money to spend after banking some $13.7 
				billion from disposals. There is also speculation that it could 
				use these funds to go on the acquisition trail next year. 
				
				Although it is doubtful that Shell would mount a deal with 
				oil at these prices, it may be tempted by a mid-sized company if 
				there was a sudden drop back to the sub-$30 range. 
				On the dividend front, Shell is maintaining the same level 
				that it distributed in the last quarter but has said that it 
				will spend about $2.6 billion on share buybacks in the fourth 
				quarter, which seems worth waiting for. 
				In the current climate of high oil prices, making $15 
				billion of investment will produce high returns but the oil 
				price has to fall sooner or later. The energy industry’s 
				spending boom will lead to increased production, prices will 
				drift and Shell will find the world a more challenging place for 
				a higher-cost producer. Hold.